Archives for March 2014

At the UK open the EUR plummeted and the CHF shot up.   Between the 2 charts the CHF was clearer and the stop loss was almost half of the EUR.  With this first 15 minute candle the CHF went through our multi-pivot line and tagged our Daily projected high, then began to fade as sellers entered.  With a stop loss above the session high structure – costing 10 pips and 41 pips to our projected Target 2, we enter with a 4:1 Reward to Risk.

Price moves down nicely stopping just above the Asian high and begins to retrace upward but not convincingly.  We move the stop loss down near our entry and a double top gives way and price retests the Asian high.  We move the profit stop down and give a bit of breathing room just above the Asian high. Price forms a second double top and fades taking out yesterday’s high.  Price completes a 3 Drives to a bottom pattern and we exit protecting our profit on the bounce back up to Target 1.

Good luck with your trading!

The UK and Europe move their clocks ahead this weekend bringing them back into sync with North America.

Back Tuesday if we find a trade and looking forward to normal trading hours once again.

JPY dropped after the US Unemployment figure was released.  An entry short with a 15 pips stop loss allowed us a 4:1 RR to our downside Target 2.  As the second round of US news was pending we tighten our stop loss to lock in a few pips in the event of a large upside reaction.  If the worst case scenario is we make a few pips, it takes the stress out of trading.  Unfortunately the market didn’t react strongly to the Pending Home Sales release but it did begin to move down further.  We lock in some more profit as it does and get closed at our profit stop just before the European close.

The Nikkei index had been volatile yesterday as we approach Japanese fiscal year end.
April can be an interesting month for the JPY as it has been known to set either the High or the Low for period of April to September.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.  It’s been a slow week this far.

The NZD moved up to begin the UK session and set up for a short after 3 lower highs and no buyers willing to take out yesterday’s high.  Sellers stepped in and price moved down to the Asian lows before reversing and testing the other side of the Asian range.

Fairly subdued session to end the week.  Fitch has affirmed the USA AAA rating.  Several Fed speakers later today.  The market will be listening for any signs of backtracking on Yellen’s comments to an interest rate hike in the spring of 2015.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Fed Chair Yellen surprised the market with a unexpected hawkish stance suggesting that rates may rise in the spring of 2015.  For now, leaving interest rates and tapering unchanged but projecting unemployment rates to drop by the end of this year.  Big moves followed as the USD strengthened after her comments.

During the UK session as the EUR and GBP weakened, we chose a pair with a more affordable stop loss and enter the AUD short.  The pair moves down to its Asian session low and bounces – closing the trade for a modest gain.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Lots of economic news out the of the UK this session.  As the US traders began, we see the GBP reverse immediately and a second bearish candle confirmed the short entry.  We enter with a stop of 18 pips for a potential 71 pips to our Target 2.

As price nears the Asian session high we see a doji-like candle and tighten our profit stop to protect our gains.  We are closed out for modest gains on the subsequent candle, but my students will note that a pattern completed with the doji-like candle.

The market eagerly awaits Janet Yellen’s speech today.  The USDJPY is very quiet in the meantime.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

Governor Wheeler announced a rise in interest rates last week in New Zealand from 2.5% to 2.75% and the NZD is rising for now.   As the Kiwi began to rise and move back within the Asian session area with bullish candles, an entry is found.

Placing a stop below structure we had a 3:1 Reward to Risk ratio setup to our Target 2.  With a pending German ZEW release, we move our stop loss to plus 1 and await the market follow through.  Price moves up incrementally and pauses at our Target 1.  We give it a few pips of wiggle room and we are closed by the market at our profit stop.  Price continues to rise to our Target 2 and beyond without us – oh well.

The market awaits key numbers from the UK tomorrow and traders will listen closely to Janet Yellen’s speech for clues regarding the US economy going forward.

Geopolitical events although far from resolved have abated somewhat as we await the politicians next moves.

Be very cautious of the EUR at the 1.40 Big Figure.  The AUD has been rising and as we approach higher valuations, remember that Governor Stevens referred to this area as being “uncomfortably high” for Australia’s economy last year.  The GBP too looks heavy at current valuation making the news announcements tomorrow all the more important to the market.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.