Archives for August 2014

This is a very similar trade to yesterday.  The EURUSD is active with large institutional short positions and this is also true in the crosses.

If you can learn what is important to the very large institutional traders and trade with them not against them, your trading will improve and your consistency and confidence will go up considerably!

If the market bias is short the EUR and long the USD, than I want to go short the EUR and long the CHF. These pairs move inversely and it’s more a matter of taking the better setup.

We see a number of wicky candles as price tries to stay above the Asian session highs…which means sellers are entering.  There is a major US economic news release pending in the US session and we have already discussed the institutional bias.  This also means that if the institutional position traders are short, then they will add to their positions on small rally retracements.  In today’s case that would mean if the 1.3200 figure is challenged…it will most likely run into sellers both just above and just below.  Options too will be active here.

The news although positive for the US economy saw the EUR rise a bit in post reaction.  As this blip fades, price creates another lower high for the session and closes below the Asian session high… in the direction of the bias, a short entry is taken.  With a Reward for Risk of greater than 2:1 ( at this time of day I will take a 2:1 because there is little time left in the UK session) to our Target 2, a short is taken and we will attempt to get through both the Asian session low and yesterday’s low – which is a bit of a double barrier.  Price moves down and retests this area before descending to our Target 1 and closing below it.  With less than 30 minutes left in the session, we are closed  protecting our profit at Target 1.

It’s a holiday in North America on Monday.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

Questions Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

A nice setup occurred fairly early into the UK trading session.  The EUR was showing weakness above yesterday’s highs and it was unable to close above the Asian session high.  After 2 lower highs and no further news until the US session, an entry short is taken with a stop loss above the session spike high.

Price subsequently moves down and closes below the Asian low.   We move our profit stop down allowing for a retest of the Asian low.  Price moves lower and through our Target 1… leaving a very wicky bottom to the candle.  We move our profit stop lower.  Price closes below our Target 1 which we protect and we are closed the following candle – well in advance of the US session.

Be extra careful trading around month end order flows.  As always, be selective in your setups and keep your stops tight.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Questions Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

The GBP tagged a very significant target at 1.6535 to begin the trading week – where some very large position traders would have taken profits – closing their positions.

After a run up during the Asian session, we see that the upside momentum faded and price could not get above the Asian high.  As price rolls over we enter short, placing a stop above the Asian high for a better than 5:1 Reward for our Risk to Target 2.

Price moves down but cannot penetrate the Asian session low as the UK session comes to an end and we close the position for modest gains.

Last week in advance of the Jackson Hole Symposium a lot of large EUR short positions were closed. These positions were opened again as the new trading week began and both Draghi and Yellen’s comments had been digested.  The market is now pricing in further ECB rate easing with very high probablility for September and extremely high probability within the next couple of months.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Send questions to Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

The AUD was active during the Asian session after RBA Gov. Stevens’ speech.  The European traders brought price off its lows before the UK traders pushed it back down where it formed a higher low.  After 2 bullish candles an entry long is taken giving us a better than 3:1 Reward to Risk ratio setup to our Target 2.

In advance of the US Open we move our stop loss to plus 1.  Price subsequently moves up to the Asian session high and we wait one more candle to see if it can break through and head to our Target 2.  It does not and we give back a few pips and close the trade.  This was a very straightforward setup and assisted by the lack of US news in advance of the FOMC meeting later today.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade, but not Friday as we are taking a long weekend.

The AUD made a familiar setup with 3 lower highs.  After the third lower high and a very bearish 3 candle reversal an entry short is taken with a stop loss above the Asian session high.  Although I do not like entries in the middle part of the Asian session range, 3 lower highs, a very bearish 3 candle reversal consistent with overall Daily trend, and a cheap stop of 10 pips made this trade very attractive.  It also met our minimum 3:1 Reward for our Risk minimum to our Target 2.

US PPI created some volatility as the Asian session low was tested and gave way to the downside after the Uof M Consumer Sentiment disappointed.  We closed the trade just after the European close as it begins to retrace.

Nice to have found an Aussie trade once again.  This summer the NZD has been much easier to trade.  For those of you watching the JPY – it produced a nice trade setup this session too.

Good luck with our trading!  Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesdays if we find a trade.

Questions?  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

With the US Unemployment number and reaction behind us, we see the market is reversing to the downside consistent with the EUR Daily time frame trend.  With a greater that 3:1 Reward for our Risk, we enter short with 2 hours left in our trading session.

Price moves down enabling us to move the stop loss to a profit stop…removing any stress from the trade. As price continues down, we continue to lock in profit.  We anticipate a retest of a critical level from the hourly chart which price touches before moving down further.  As the UK session ends, we close the trade reluctantly and leave the rest of the move to the US traders.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.