Archives for September 2015

The GBP had difficulty climbing above its Asian highs today.  With the news out of the way, we take a short with a stop loss of 21 pips for a potential 74 pips to our Target 2.  Price did not move down quickly, but clearly there were no buyers above the Asian highs and it began to turn down.  As price descended, we locked in some profits in advance of the pending U.S. session and the retail sales releases.

Price continued downward briefly resting at the Asian low before dropping to our targets.  As price bounced upward just in advance of hitting our Target 2, our profit stop is tagged and we are taken out of the trade.

Lots of news this week, but the major event risk is the Fed. rate decision which many expect to be the first  25 bp hike in a new rising interest rate environment.  The FED has been sounding hawkish of late, but the market is still very divided upon the timing.

Trade cautiously as always and keep your stop losses tight.

The institutions continue to expect dovish comments from ECB President Draghi and he continues to deliver.  The EUR daily chart indicates short is the direction and this may pick up momentum once 1.1100 gives way.  It is to the ECB’s advantage to have a weaker EUR and the market tends to oblige – particularly when it is not focused on China.

A very clear sell zone was evident above the 1.1234 area and it held well throughout the Asian session.  As the combination of Draghi’s press conference with the U.S. Unemployment Claims number and Trade Balance all due, the market was quite subdued while awaiting the outcome.  A stop loss just above the day’s high cost 17 pips.  Our Target 2 was 121 pips away.  Although always risky entering before news, with the very defined sell parameters from the larger charts and an excellent reward to risk ratio, a short is taken with the trend.

We are quickly rewarded and note the profit taking bounce at Target 1.  As price drops further we tighten our profit stop in hopes of getting to Target 2.  Price begins to move upward and we are taken out of the trade.  The 1.1100 area provided a triple confluence today and we expected a rebound had we attained it.

For those watching WTI – it once again set up beautiful trades in the USDCAD and CADJPY today.

Tomorrow is NFP Friday with all FED watchers on deck.  Be very careful as the volatility will likely be very high.  The easier move to catch is usually the reversal after the initial reaction to the print fades.  Never chase a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

 

A fairly straight forward EUR short today.  As price sold off each time it touched this important level from the daily chart, we place a stop loss 20 pips above our entry for a potential 107 pips to our Target 2.  When price settled and moved sideways at the Asian low, we placed our stop loss at plus 1 pip – knowing the market was awaiting the U.S. ADP number.  The EUR descends further after the release and we move our profit stop down accordingly.  After a large red candle we move our profit stop to halfway and we are taken out of the trade on a retracement candle.

More employment numbers Thursday and Friday.  The market will be scrutinizing the numbers looking for signs that the FED will or will not make the first interest rate hike this month.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow.

 

September is shaping up to be an exciting month!  Lots of economic news this month and with the possibility of the FED raising rates…traders will be looking for clues as to whether they will or whether they won’t.

The EUR has reason to remain under pressure, and as it reversed early session in classic fashion, a short was taken.  A 22 pip stop loss for a potential 122 pips to our Target 2.

As price moves down we allow for a retest of the Asian high… which also corresponded today to a very important level for institutional position traders – as seen on their daily charts.  Price descends further completing our first pattern and closes below it.  As price found buyers just below, we are closed at our profit stop placed at yesterday’s high.

The EURJPY has been a great pair to trade short of late and I will be posting trades going forward.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.