Archives for October 2015

On Tuesday the price of WTI oil was down and looking very weak.  With WTI down, we looked for an entry long in the USDCAD.  As the U.S. session got underway a long entry is found after a very bullish engulfing candle.  Price had tested the Asian session highs and found buyers.  Price moved up and we were eventually taken out on a pullback just above Target 1.

On Wednesday, we had the opposite.  WTI began moving up and the oil inventories number resulted in a 6% push higher from Tuesday.

An entry short was taken as price started to roll over.  To protect ourselves, we moved our stop loss to plus 5 pips in advance of the inventories number…thereby having no risk in the trade and allowing the market some room for knee jerk volatility when the news came out.  With much lower inventories than last week, price plummeted as the CAD strengthened along with WTI.

The EURCAD offered very nice setups too.

Good luck with your trading.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

The NZD got a boost during the Asian session with China lowering interest rates.

As price ran into sellers above the Asian highs, a short setup consistent with USD strength presents itself.  With an initial 22 pip stop loss for a potential 78 pips to our Target 2, a short is taken.  Price moved down through yesterday’s high… then came back to retest the level.  We tightened our profit stop and keep moving it down.  When we see that price bounces off our Target 1, leaving a very wicky candle, we close the trade giving back almost 10 pips.

Following Mario Draghi’s comments yesterday we have seen the USD strengthen once again.

Looking forward to next week.  Europe and the UK move to Standard time this weekend.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

 

The EUR was unable to stay above its Asian high and with a 10 pip stop loss a short is taken.  Price moved down to the Asian low and pushed right through it before coming right back up where we exited.  After what the next lower high, we went short again only to be closed out on a second bounce as price came back up to the Asian low once again.

Tomorrow is the main risk event of the week with ECB President Draghi  speaking.  Will he assure the market that the ECB will continue with QE going forward to stimulate the economy?  We are about to find out what the market thinks of his latest assertions.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

The JPY is trading in a range of approximately 118.00 – 121.00 with a subdued daily range of late.  As month end approaches, we expect to see more activity with the BOJ announcement.  In the meantime, the JPY continues to move in near 50 pip increments between the figures… 119.50 to 120.00 etc.

At the UK open it soared higher then pulled back into the Asian range where it went sideways.  When this range broke, we entered long with a 10 pip stop loss for a potential 55 pips to our Target 2.  Knowing that this pair would slow around the 120.00 figure we tightened our profit stop in advance. Price was unable to close above 119.95 and we were taken out at our profit stop.

Last week I was unable to find a trade that met our Reward to Risk requirements.  I would rather sit on my hands for a week than force a trade and get stopped out for a loss.  Discipline is key to trading success.

I remain a USD bull, but not with the same conviction that I had during the summer.  The bond market at this stage is lacking enthusiasm for a rate hike any time soon…but this can change with  Janet Yellen’s next speech.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

The GBP made a strong close on Wednesday which was very significant to postition traders.  Yesterday the level held well and today it was retested.

As a sell zone became evident in today’s session  – we awaited for a strong reversal setup.  A 20 pip stop loss for a potential 87 pips to our Target 2 was very attractive.  We went short and although the trade went against us in the first 15 minutes, price was unable to close above yesterday’s high.  Price then moved down and we awaited to see how it would react at the Asian low.  The level gave way, got retested and price moved down one more time.

As price continued down, it appeared to have found a bottom and bounced strongly upward.  We closed the trade choosing not to give back too many pips.

Good luck with your trading!  Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

A light news day today with the EUR finding sellers near the top of its recent range – around the 1.1300 figure.

After the second break of the Asian low and consistent with our bias, we look for a short setup and find one allowing a 15 pip stop loss for a potential 75 pips to our Target 2.

Price moved down before buyers entered below the session low – not letting price reach 1.1200.   We exit as price bounces up toward the previous candle’s low to preserve our gains.  Wicky candles are very revealing of pending price reversals – especially at important price levels.  Think of them as a yellow flag being waived on a race course.

 

Good luck with your trading!

UK and US news tomorrow.

Back then if we find a trade.