Archives for September 2016

Nothing like a little debate between presidential candidates to move the markets.  I’m not really sure why, but it had an effect and approximately 82 million viewers watched it.

The EUR started to move down after earlier luring in breakout short traders.  After a retracement the pair set up nicely and began to move back down.  A short is taken with a 12 pip stop loss for a potential 50 pips to our Target 2.

Price moved down but had difficulty getting through the 1.1200 figure.  As it bounced up from our Target 1, we closed the trade choosing not to give back any more pips at a critical level that could hold.

Lots of economic news tomorrow including Core Durables, Yellen testifying, Draghi speaking and Crude Oil inventories.

Good luck with your trading!

After making waves to the downside through the Asian session today, the GBP continued to sell off as the U.K. session got underway.  We found a short entry just above the important 1.3000 figure.  In a fairly quiet trading week… due to the announcements on Wednesday by Japan, the US Fed and New Zealand, trades have been harder to find.

Although the risk/reward on this trade wasn’t very good, the GBP has been trending downward and the short setup was the most attractive one that I saw today.  As price quickly moved down to our Target 2, we exited the trade, and missed a further move during the U.S. part of the session. The GBP sold off in all 3 sessions today as a hard Brexit landing has been the focus this week.

With a U.S. rate increase now unlikely before December ( at the earliest), traders can focus on the pending U.S. election outcome and what its implications may be for the markets.  Hopefully the markets will pick up once again and produce more trade setups for us.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

 

 

The idea to short the GBP today was to risk no more than 27 pips for a potential 95 pips to our Target 2.  Although the market is short the GBP, the idea was to try to ride it down to the 1.3000 level and watch it closely to see if it could go lower.  The risk… although a little higher than I like at 27 pips could be reduced as the trade moved lower.  Price moved down to the Asian session lows then broke and headed for yesterday’s low.  We removed the risk from the trade by locking in 22 pips.  As price retraced upward after the large drop, our profit stop is hit taking us out of the trade.  Price subsequently completed a “3 Drives” pattern coming within 2 pips of our T2 … without us.

All eyes are on the Bank of Japan and U.S. Fed now.   The market does not expect an interest rate hike tomorrow from the Fed.

Good luck with your trading!

Retail sales and PPI were soft today and the USD weakened as traders’ expectations of a rate hike next week by the Fed diminished further.

The USDJPY rolled over – unable to find buyers above the Asian high and a countertrend short trade was taken with a 17 pip stop loss.  The idea was for the pair to move down and test the the Asian session lows before the UK Close.  This was a late session trade and the 102.35 level was challenging to break through.  Once price broke it with 15 minutes left in the session, it opened the door to the downside but we exited at the UK Close.

Friday the market will be watching closely at the CPI numbers and the U of M Consumer Sentiment for further hints as to rate hike expectations.

Good luck with your trading!

I haven’t been posting trades lately because the market was pretty quiet the last 2 weeks of August and the first week of September was a shortened holiday week in North America with a holiday Monday and a NFP Friday.  I have made no more than one trade a week and preferred to be outside enjoying the last days of summer over staring at the screens searching for trade setups in a sleepy market.

This week most traders are back and getting excited about autumn trading.  There will be lots to rev up the market from here on.  The prospect of a September rate hike has once again been on the minds of traders and U.S. bonds have selling off.  The U.S. stock markets appear to be anticipating a rate hike and started to sell off last Friday.

Oil is moving downward and it looks like we could test the WTI $40 level again.

Gold looks like it could certainly test the $1300 area with anticipation of rate hike.

Of course, if the Fed sounds cautious as has been their track record this year and we hear only that  the case is strengthening for a rate hike as opposed to a rate hike, the USD is likely to sell off.  Fundamentals can change daily so it’s always important to be aware of pending major economic news but trading what you see from the technicals – especially with the trend is going to increase your probability of success.

Good luck with your trading!