Archives for January 2018

The majors didn’t offer any high probability trade setups in my opinion today…however the EURGBP set up for a short entry an hour before the U.S. Open.  The EURGBP is worthwhile watching during the Brexit period as it can be fairly easy to trade and active.

I particularly like it when the EURUSD and GBPUSD are diverging which was not the case today.  As evidenced on its daily chart the pair is trending downward.  The .8700 figure may be difficult for it to get through this week as buyers have been appearing at this level recently.

Our trade was taken with a 15 pip stop loss for a potential 54 pips to our daily target .8740.  Price eventually moved down during the U.S. overlap and we closed the trade at the London close where price was sitting at its Asian low.  The British economy is improving and doing quite well overall.  The European economy is doing well too but inflation remains below 2% and Mario Draghi still has time to decide to either taper QE or not.  An interest rate hike is not likely while inflation remains below 2%.

President Trump’s speech last night did little for the USD and the FOMC today is not expected to deliver any surprises at Janet Yellen’s final meeting as chairperson.

If Thursday brings any setups of interest, I will be back tomorrow, otherwise next week as I prefer not to trade on NFP Fridays.

Good luck with your trading!

The USDCAD is not usually very active during the Asian session,but it made a large countertrend move on Tuesday.  At the beginning of the U.K. session it could not close above its Asian session high and set up for a short back-to-trend.  Three candles into the U.K. session a short is entered risking 15 pips for a potential 75 pips to our daily target at 1.2290.(not shown)

Sometimes in trading you can wait for what seems like hours for a trade to get moving and other times, the market delivers quickly.  Today’s reversal back-to-trend was quick and vertical.

As price moved down, we locked in profit quickly… knowing that vertical moves are not sustainable and looked for any sign of reversal.  Price slowed at its Asian low and retested the level.  We tightened our profit stop even more after 2 long lower wick candles, and it was hit.

Tonight President Trump makes his “State of the Union” address and we expect to hear “America First” and “fair and reciprocal” trade at least once.  This however may not boost the USD as one might expect from protectionist rhetoric.

Hopefully on Wednesday the FED will be able to steer the USD into a more positive territory based on the fundamentals.

I’m back after missing a lot of last week due to the flu.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

 

 

It’s no surprise that the USD was moderately weaker today with the government shut-down unresolved.

The GBP was very strong today, so with a weak USD and a nice long setup, we entered early in the U.S. session…risking 15 pips for a potential 65 pips to our daily target.   The strength of the GBP today was also confirmed by looking at the EURGBP.

Be aware that the GBP although strengthening can be quite volatile around any Brexit headlines.

The annual conference in Davos, Switzerland this week can also give rise to volatility as participants talk with the media.

I will be away tomorrow.

Good luck with your trading!

 

It was interesting to see the USDX up a bit on Friday and gold was also up.  Oil ended the week softer on Friday.

The USDCAD which has been very active lately set up for a long early in the U.K. session.  With a stop loss of 12 pips for a potential 83 pips to our daily target 1.2493 (not shown) we liked the setup.  As price began to move up from its Asian low, a trade was entered… with the first hurdle being to get above yesterday’s low.  It took a bit of time but price was able to gain momentum and head higher to test its Asian high.  With the U.S. session about to begin, we locked in some profit. Price moved higher and we moved our stop again.  The volatility at the time of the Canadian economic releases caused our profit stop to close our trade.

With the “U.S. government shutdown” headlines, we anticipate USD weakness until the issue is resolved.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

 

 

 

The markets are sending some mixed signals this month.  Today as an example, during the U.S. session overlap gold was down as was the USDX.  After the U.S. economic releases, the USDJPY set up for a short trade… risking 12 pips for a potential 53 pips to our daily target.

Price moved down through its Asian low, retested it and moved down further.  As a long lower wick appeared, we tightened our profit stop and our trade was closed during the next candle.

When the market is giving mixed signals, it’s prudent to trade more cautiously or not at all.  If the USD weakness gains momentum be very cognizant of the 110.00 figure.

Good luck with your trading!

It’s unusual to see the EURUSD move so much during the Asian session.  On Wednesday it sold off in a counter-trend move.  When the U.K. session got underway, price made a wave upward before reversing and setting up for a short entry.  We entered short risking 12 pips for a potential 36 pips to our daily target which also coincided with the 1.2200 figure.

Price moved down to its Asian low where we gave it room to retest this level and tightened our profit stop.  Price then descended to our daily target and closed the trade.

When price completes its range before a major session… like the U.S. session today, it’s likely the new session of traders will reverse the move.  If price has done the majority of its expected range, then anticipate a corrective wave also.  An exception to this is when a major event occurs which shocks the market.  In instances of this nature, price will have an exceptional day, but such days are thankfully few in the course of a year.

Good luck with your trading!