Archives for November 2019

Over the weekend tension resurfaced with the U.S. – China trade talks once again and the USD weakened on Monday. The market is becoming skeptical of a Phase One signing being imminent and as the rhetoric commences about an increase in tariffs if an agreement is not signed – the market is being cautious of the implications.

Today a short setup was found in the USDJPY risking 8 pips for a potential 44 pips to our daily target at 108.32. The trade moved down to test its Asian session high, before retracing slightly going into the U.S. open. Price then moved lower and tested its Asian session low where buyers entered… and the pair retraced going into the London close and closed our trade just above the 108.50 level.

In the U.K. tonight, the leadership debate will be interesting and the Conservatives currently have the lead over the opposition Labour Party. The market appears to be positioned long the GBP as the Conservative lead grows stronger for Prime Minister Johnson.

Good luck with your trading!

The EURUSD 1.1000 level has been supportive all week. The USD was unable to get any sustained traction higher.

Today the EURUSD began to move higher and a long was taken risking 8 pips for a potential 25 pips to our daily target at 1.1047. The 1.1050 – 1.1065 level is likely to attract shorts on any USD strength… which was not evident today.

Price slowly climbed to test and retest its Asian session high and yesterday’s high in advance or the U.S. open. There were lots of U.S. economic news releases today, so we moved our profit stop up to protect our gains and closed the trade at our target price of 1.1047.

My preference will be to short this pair next week for a retest of 1.1000 on a day of USD strength. With continued USD weakness, my preference will be to go long for a test of the 1.1100 figure.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

The USDX continued to stall near recent highs and the sentiment was “risk off” today. Even the EUR and GBP were able to climb versus the USD.

The USDJPY moved to its Asian session low and oscillated just above and below this level going into the U.S. session overlap. After it failed to make a new high for the London session, a short was taken risking 7 pips for a potential 27 pip to our daily target at 108.36

Price moved down gradually to and through our target level. We closed the trade as it began to reverse going into the London close.

The 1.1000 level is still supportive for the EURUSD. Fading the current up move is of interest targeting another test of the 1.1000 level if we see some USD strength tomorrow.

Good luck with your trading!

As the market digested President Trump’s speech yesterday and awaited today to see if Fed Chair Powell would add anything new, risk sentiment was cautious.

After the USDJPY tried to move above its Asian session high, and failed, a short was taken risking 12 pips for a potential 36 pips to our daily target at 108.67. Price moved down to test its Asian session low and bounced 10 pips higher before making a new wave lower to our daily target.

This pair appears to be moving in a channel between 108.50 and 109.50 at the moment. Look for buyers near 108.50 and sellers near 109.50.

in the U.K. election developments, P.M. Johnson’s Conservatives continue their lead over the Labour party as the prime minister promises to end the Brexit “groundhoggery” and deliver Brexit. In the meantime the pair appears to be trading between 1.2780 to 1.3000. Keep stops tight as the range continues.

The EURUSD continues to test the 1.1000 level where buyers have been entering. A continued break below, particularly after a retest of 1.1000 opens the 1.0900 and 1.0800 levels for shorts.

Good luck with your trading!

The EURUSD continued lower today as the USD strength continued. The USDX sustained move higher above current support at 98.00 is bullish as we go into the weekend.

The question today was whether or not the EURUSD would test the 1.1000 figure. As it moved lower beneath its Asian session low, a short was taken risking 8 pips for a potential 37 pips to our daily target at 1.1003. As the candles developed long lower wicks, as buyers entered, we locked in profit and our profit stop closed the initial trade. It’s very common to see a retracement in advance of the U.S. open.

As the U.S. session got underway, we went short again risking 8 pips for a potential 26 pips to our daily target. The trade was closed at the U.K. close for an overall modest return.

The current move higher for the USD and U.S. 10 year yields is attributable to the optimism regarding the U.S. – China trade talks phase one being signed… and both sides making concessions in the meantime. If either side scuttles the agreement, we will see an abrupt reverse in the current “risk on” sentiment.

In the meantime, the USDJPY is trading with a very high correlation to risk on sentiment as measured by the moves of the S&P index…and this correlation also extends to JPY crosses. Understanding correlations is a very powerful tool for any trader.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

The currency markets have calmed down after a very reactionary and volatile several months. In my opinion, the markets are looking much more tradeable now. The U.S. – China trade agreement although not yet signed is looking like phase one will now be signed in December.

The U.K. election is still over a month away. With the Bank of England rate decision, meeting minutes, and Governor Carney’s press conference today, it felt safe to take a short on the GBPUSD before the event. It seemed highly unlikely there would be a rate change so close to the election. Risking 15 pips for a potential 40 pips to our daily target at 1.2815 – an entry short was taken. It paid off well and quickly, but I can understand why many traders would prefer to wait until after the announcement and conference before jumping in.

The GBPUSD has been trading between 1.2800 and 1.3000 recently. A break lower opens up a test for 1.2700 and 1.2650. A break higher above 1.3000 will likely test 1.3075.

The EURUSD set up for a nice short today as it pushed lower early in the U.S. session overlap, after failing to find buyers above its Asian session high. We entered short risking 10 pips for a potential 30 pips to our daily target at 1.1042.

A continued move lower will have difficulty getting through the 1.1000 figure. Any sustained moved beneath 1.1000 and 1.0925 then 1.0880 area become technical targets.

Good luck with your trading!