Archives for April 2022

I tend to trade the AUDUSD more often than the NZDUSD, but the setup in the Kiwi today required only a 13 pip stop loss for a potential 41 pips to our daily target at .6463.

My preference is not to enter trades in the middle of the Asian session range unless I have a number of compelling reasons or confluences. A thirteen pip stop loss and a greater than 3:1 reward for the risk also helped in the decision making. As we approached the Asian session lows, we locked in more profit especially as the U.S. session was nearing and there was important economic releases pending.

The trade was closed at our target in advance of any news related volatility or reversals.

There are a number of economic news releases on Friday to be aware of for Europe, U.S. and Canada.

Good luck with your trading!

The USD continues its ascent and the GBPUSD continues its descent. Regardless of the chart interval, one can see a series of lower highs on pullbacks.

Today, during the U.S. session overlap as the pair made another lower high a short was taken risking 20 pips for a potential 79 pips to our daily target at 1.2459 (not shown). Price moved lower following a high probability reversal setup. The risk was taken out of the trade after the second candle. At the European close (typically a volatile candle) price was unable to penetrate the 1.2500 figure. It slowed right down and didn’t touch it. As buyers began to enter pushing the pair a little higher, the trade was exited.

Could price continue lower today penetrating the 1.2500 mark… absolutely, but if you’re up 35 pips in a trade how much to you do you want to give back when price is bouncing at a technical round figure? You can always get in again or find another trade. In this example today, price respected the psychological 1.2500 number and buyers entered. I prefer to focus on the pips that I get in my account not the ones that got away. An old friend used to say to me that “fear and greed are a traders two worst enemies”.

One of my preferences for taking a trade is to have a 3:1 reward for my risk or greater. Would I take a 2:1 trade… yes, if I really like the setup. Are these trades hard to find… somedays they are. Do I ever take a 1.5:1 trade… yes, if that is all I can find and the market is slow for a given period. The key here is to have a confluence of reasons for taking a trade, particularly if it has a low R:R. If you find yourself compromising then it’s prudent to take a smaller position size than usual. If the trade works out… great you’ve made some money. If the trade doesn’t work out… you haven’t lost much money. Examples of risk for me, are one quarter or .25% account risk for a tiny trade. One half or .5% risk for a good trade setup and .5% to 1% for a great trade setup. In the current volatile market, my preference is not greater than .5% risk… and I like to get the risk out of the trade as quickly as possible, as the trade moves in my favour.

We never know when we enter a trade how it will work out, but we can limit our risk exposure at entry and further while we are in the trade.

Good luck with your trading!

The USDCAD started the U.S. session dipping down to test its Asian session low… very close to yesterday’s low and found buyers. As the pair began to climb higher, a long was taken risking 20 pips for a potential 49 pips to our daily target at 1.2542.

The pair moved to the 1.2500 figure and retested this level before moving higher. Although the pair didn’t make it to our target before the U.K. close today, it was a good trade without any significant pullbacks. If you have the time to stay in the USDCAD after the U.K. close, you will often be rewarded.

A continued move higher could test 1.2600 area and the technical level at 1.2625.

Friday has lots of economic news releases so be careful trading before them.

Good luck with your trading!

The USDJPY has been surging higher since moving above the 116.00 figure last week. This move is based on the fundamental weakness currently of Japan’s economy and is reflected in other yen crosses as well.

The USD was strong today and after the economic news, a long was taken in the USDJPY risking 13 pips for a potential 54 pips to our daily target at 126.13.

Today the pair tried to take out the 126.00 figure and immediately ran into sellers. We closed the trade immediately after the rejection.

Yesterday the pair was not able to close above 126.00. A close above 126.00 would take out the high from May 31, 2015 which was in the 125.85 area and potentially open the door for a continued move higher next week.

Many of the world’s markets will be closed tomorrow for the Easter long weekend.

Happy Easter and good luck with your trading!

The AUDUSD traded mostly sideways going into the U.S. session overlap. A short set was taken risking 11 pips for a potential 48 pips to our daily target at .7409. Price moved lower and we locked in profits as it did. A reversal pattern set up and we re-entered long risking 10 pips for approximately 20 pips for a test of the recent support level and potentially a test of yesterday’s low after that.

Next week looks like another busy economic news week and Friday will be a holiday for much of the world.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

The AUDUSD set up for a short early in the U.S. session overlap after a third lower high… risking 15 pips for a potential 39 pips to our daily target at .7525.

Price went sideways after the entry for 30 minutes then began to move lower stalling near yesterday’s low. We ended up giving back a few pips as price moved a bit higher going into the U.K. close triggering our take profit.

The AUDUSD has now taken out the support level where price had surged earlier in the week reacting to the RBA rate statement.

Good luck with your trading!