Michael Bridgman

It was a fairly subdued session for the majors and the USD was a bit stronger today after yesterday’s selloff.

The USDCAD which has been trending downward, continued today helped by oil climbing a bit higher and a larger than anticipated draw down in crude oil inventories.

When price was unable to sustain above its Asian high, a short was taken risking 18 pips for a potential 108 pips to our daily target which was 1.2531.

Price moved down and tested its Asian session range before it broke lower just in advance of the U.S. open.  With a the crude oil inventories release pending, we locked in some profit and continued to do so…getting closed out of the trade when it bounced up from yesterday’s low.

The EUR is slightly softer today with some macro account profit taking in advance of Mario Draghi speaking tomorrow.  It could go either way from here.  Keep an eye on the JPY pairs too for the markets reaction to the Bank of Japan’s outlook due later today.

Good luck with your trading!

 

The USD saw heavy selling as President Trump’s healthcare bill failed to get Senate approval, casting doubt for now on his ability to get the stimulus plans implemented.

The Asian session saw heavy selling in the USDJPY with a much larger move than usual for the pair.  As the UK session got underway price tested but was unable to stay above yesterday’s low and began to sell off again.  A short was taken risking 9 pips for a potential 49 pips to our daily target.  Price moved down to test its Asian session lows in advance of the U.S. session opening.  We chose to lock in 10 pips and anticipated heavier volume as the U.S. traders began their session.  Price moved down to our target level and we exited the trade.

If the USD continues to be weak and UST yields continue to move down, watch for the EUR to rise and test 1.1600 and see how it reacts to the April 2016 high.

Be aware of the potential volatility due to the BOJ statement tomorrow and the ECB’s Draghi speaking on Thursday.

Good luck with your trading!

 

The major economic news releases today were from the U.S. and they were disappointing.  As the U.K. session got underway the USDCAD moved above its Asian highs before creating a double-top and pulling back.  It found buyers in the middle of its Asian range and moved higher once again where is made a triple-top and began to fade.

With a very small stop loss of 10 pips, we entered short.  In advance of the U.S. session where this pair tends to be most active and in advance of the U.S. economic releases, we moved our stop loss to plus one.  Price moved down nicely driven by the disappointing numbers but bounced right back up to our profit stop the next candle – taking us out of the trade.

Price was then unable to close above yesterday’s low and left 2 candles with long upper wicks as more bears pushed price down.  We re-entered short with an initial stop loss above the U.S. session highs.  As price began to drop, once again we moved our profit stop down about halfway up the previous candle as we were approaching the European close and some potential for end-of-week profit taking.  Once again as price retraced upward, our profit stop was hit…taking us out of the trade before a continued sell-off move going into the London close.

An interesting trading week has ended.  Keep an eye on the CAD as it is clearly trending and the Bank of Canada raised rates this week…with a very optimistic outlook for the economy.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

 

 

The USD finally found some buyers today.  I’ve been reading some interesting and convincing analysts talk about how poorly the USD is performing this year.  One must keep in mind that many of these analysts were very bullish on the USD in January and very bearish on the EUR.  Now they have adjusted their forecasts to bullish on the EUR and bearish on the USD.  Predicting the future value of a currency knowing only what we know today is a formidable task.

The USDJPY moved down to test yesterday’s low and found buyers.  We took the bounce as an opportunity to go long risking 18 pips for a potential 57 pips to our daily target.  The positive PPI m/m seemed to help the pair move higher, but we opted to moved our stop loss to plus 1 in advance of the US news releases.  Price continued higher but was unable to get above its Asian high and traded sideways going into the UK close…where we exited.

A number of U.S. economic news releases tomorrow… so be aware of the potential for volatility.

Good luck with your trading!

 

A fairly quiet economic news week with Monday and Tuesday offering very little economic news for traders.  Wednesday will have Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony and Canada’s Governor Poloz possibly announcing a rate hike.

Traders remain bearish on the GBP and bullish on the Euro.  Today we saw an opportunity to go long the EURGBP with a very small stop loss and the trade kept on going well past our daily target.

We would have been quite happy for price to get to yesterday’s high but it surpassed it and kept moving upward, so we remained in the trade until the London close.

The Euro continues to trend upward and is not anywhere near many analysts price projections for 2017.  The GBP has not benefitted from Brexit and continues to look heavy.

With more of a “risk on” appetite for traders the EURJPY is worth watching but I much prefer to trade the USDJPY.  Choose the pairs you are most comfortable trading and look for the setups that have rewarded you well in the past.  It helps to recognize the important levels to the institutional traders and the current bias or context of the market.

Good luck with your trading!

Apologies for not posting regularly of late but time constraints have limited the amount of time I have to post trades daily.

 

Summer trading is here and contrary to popular belief it can be quite rewarding.  Although volume tends to be lower due to holidays – economic releases and geopolitical events continue throughout the summer.

The AUDUSD has been making lower highs since last Friday.  After the first 2 hours of London trading today, a short entry was found.  Price fell in the first hour and a critical level from the 1 hour chart was broken.  After the second hour price appeared to be moving down again and we entered short expecting price to test its Asian low.  Having broken below, we allowed price to retest its Asian low and locked in profit regardless.  As the U.S. session got underway, price moved lower and headed to our Daily Target.  When price bounced up just in advance of our target, our trade was closed on a spike giving us 35 pips.

With North Korea having successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) there is likely to be much talk about what the U.S. and China will do going forward.   There is definitely lots going on in the world, so don’t rule out summer trading unless you’re on vacation.

Back tomorrow if we find a nice trade.  I do not post trades typically of 20 or less pips due to time constraints and there is usually not much to learn from them with my style of trading.  Last week after a very nice JPY trade, the trading fizzled for me with 9 and 11 pip trades and I took Monday and Tuesday off this week due to holidays here in North America.

Good luck with your trading!