Michael Bridgman

After climbing higher during the first part of the UK session, the EUR ran into sellers at yesterday’s high.  A nice reversal pattern set up and we entered short risking 11 pips for a potential 68 pips to our Target 2…very nice R/R!

The trade moved down somewhat vertically and briefly reversed at our Target 1 – hitting our profit stop.  We gave it some wiggle room above T1… but it didn’t work in our favour.

A USDCAD short followed after the crude oil inventories number was released.  WTI immediately went up and the USDCAD immediately went down. We entered short the pair and as it went down and WTI continued higher, price moved down to our Target 1 and the 1.2600 figure – where we would expect it to test and run into buyers… especially with the UK session ending.

Lots of news tomorrow so it will likely be an active session especially after the US session gets underway.

Good luck with your trading!

After the Doha impasse on Sunday, WTI oil futures gapped down by over $2.00.  By Monday, it was back to onward and upward.  Today WTI moved upward once again in the U.S. session.  Broad USD weakness today was apparent as the market appears to have lost its faith in a rate hike…at least for the foreseeable future.  The GBP was even rising to the USD.

Taking advantage of USD weakness and WTI strength led us to a USDCAD short risking 26 pips for 64 pips to our Target 2…which is an acceptable R/R for this time of day.  With Gov. Poloz speech pending, we wanted to get the risk out of the trade as soon as possible and went to a plus one pip profit stop after the first candle.  WTI continued upward and we continued to tighten our profit stop as the pair moved down…closing at Target 2.

The EUR set up nicely today but the trade was frustratingly modest in return as the profit stop was hit at 13 pips after price bounced downward after testing an important level.

Lots of news pending for tomorrow’s session.

Good luck with your trading!

USDJPY traded in an orderly manner downward today as the USD was soft across the board with U.S. 10 year yields trading down.

A very nice setup occurred early in the UK part of the session.  A short requiring an 11 pip stop loss for a potential 47 pips to our Target 2 was found. Price descended making a second wave down before bouncing off our Target 2 – before the U.S. session got underway.  Unfortunately for us, our profit stop was hit at Target 1.  It’s a good idea to be cautious in this market especially on a Friday.

The Doha meeting on Sunday will be important for oil and the CAD pairs.  For this reason, I will be looking Monday at the USDCAD closely.  Going into the weekend WTI looks like it can stay above $40.  We will soon see where it heads from here.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

 

The GBP took out 1.4200 today.  After the triple top formed in the U.S. overlap –  the GBP continued downward.  We entered short, risking 24 pips for a potential 72 pips to our Target 2.  The trade was unable to get through the Asian low and lasted less than an hour for a modest gain. The GBP appears to be headed for 1.4000 now and it may find buyers there before giving way to the 1.3850 level.  The uncertainty of June 23rd continues to weigh heavily on the sterling.

The USDCAD has taken out October 2015’s low…so we would expect it to retest this level.  The Canadian dollar is strengthening to the USD as the price of WTI  is well off its bottom and trading around the $42 area.  Forty-five minutes into the U.S. session, WTI drops giving a lift to the USDCAD. An entry long is taken with an eye on a continued move downward in oil.  We were willing to risk 31 pips (CAD) for a potential 99 pips to our Target 2. Price moved up quickly but was unable to continue higher after leaving a long upper wick and lower high.  We tighten our profit stop and the market took us out on the next candle.

With the OPEC meeting this weekend  in Doha Qatar, the market may be awaiting the outcome before it makes its next move – up or down.

Good luck with your trading!

 

The GBP which continues to be a favourite short – set up very similarly to yesterday’s trade. (see yesterday’s post)

A short is taken risking 13 pips for a potential 108 pips to our Target 2 (not shown on the chart today due to spacing requirements) but was 1.4132 today.  As was true yesterday, the 1.4200 figure is holding well.  The 4 hour chart also reveals a barrier in this area that coupled with the figure is where buyers are entering.  This too shall give way soon but expect price in the meantime for price to be a bit sticky at this level… if not to bounce above it.  Remember to read price NOT indicators!

Our trade moved down and the U.S. traders helped move it down further with a bearish close below the Asian lows.  After placing our stop profit halfway down the bearish candle…we are taken out as price reverses and moves back up into the Asian range.

The Nikkei closed up 2.84% and the USD was strong today.  Why not look for a USDJPY long trade while it is making nice waves to the upside?  We can see from the chart that buyers were entering at the Asian highs and with the US session well underway, a long setup presents itself requiring a 10 pip stop loss for a potential 48 pips to our Target 2.  The trade moved up and double topped leaving a very long wicky candle with 15 minutes left in the UK session.  We exit for a modest gain.

 

The crude oil inventories surplus number didn’t cause a dramatic effect in the price of WTI as it currently sits just under $42.

Good luck with your trading!

 

Today the GBP once again weakened to the USD.   The entry short set up with an R/R of 6:1 – requiring a 20 pip stop loss for a potential 123 pips to our Target 2.  As soon as the U.S. session got underway the pair began to drop with momentum.  It stalled after a relatively fast 43 pips to retest the Asian high before descending to the 1.42 figure.  The confluence from the 4 hour and 1 hour chart along with the figure brought about the bounce and reversal.

The GBP will remain heavy as concerns around Brexit and Prime Minister Cameron’s current Panama popularity remain in question.  The pair is active and well worth keeping an eye on.   If a long setup presents itself, and the USD is getting sold, then it can traded long too, but it is easier to short currently.

Good luck with your trading!