Michael Bridgman

Another day of USD weakness versus the majors and still lots of room for the USDJPY to drop further.  A reversal pattern set up in the U.S. part of the session and an entry short is taken with the trending move.  With a 21 pip stop loss and a potential 98 pips to our Target 2, this pair set up nicely.

Our first challenge was to get through the Asian session low before making it down to Targets 1 & 2.  Target 2 coincidentally is yesterday’s low after the major sell-off.

Price makes its way lower but finds buyers in the 108.20 area.  We tighten our take profit after the 2 wicky candles and price takes us out in the last 15 minutes of the U.K. session for modest gains.

Talk of Bank of Japan intervention may abound next week, but my understanding is this would have to be approved in advance by the ECB and the FED.  In the meantime, the downward trend could approach the 105.50 level or below.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

Back next week.

 

 

 

A quiet day news wise as traders awaited with dovish expectation the FOMC meeting minutes.  The crude oil inventories came in well below expectations which gave WTI a needed lift.  This set up a short trade for the USDCAD.

We waited for price to move down after the news and enter near the Asian session low with a 24 pip stop loss just above the Asian high for a potential 89 pips to our Target 2.   Price moved down vertically testing yesterday’s low and bouncing above our Target 1 at the close of the U.K. session and we closed the trade.

Mario Draghi is tentatively speaking Thursday and we also have the U.S. Unemployment claims.

Good luck with your trading!

 

 

The GBP made a series of lower highs and as it tried and failed to move higher into its Asian range… a short is taken…risking 15 pips for a potential 87 pips to our Target 2.

Price moved down…went sideways and made another move down just as the U.S. traders began.  The next candle tagged our profit stop and we were closed just under yesterday’s low – missing the last wave down.

Tomorrow we have crude oil inventories which will affect the CAD pairs.  WTI is weak again but $35 is still holding so far…

Good luck with your trading!

I’m a day late in posting and it’s been tricky finding a trade this week.  I don’t usually post trades that result in less than 25 pips, but I certainly haven’t found any great trades this week.  This small one yesterday looked good, but the profit stop was hit and we were done at 20 pips.

The trade started with a 25 pip stop loss that I would not have let run up to that level.  The stop loss is always placed in case the market spikes against a trader due to some unforeseen event to prevent catastrophic loss.

Being bearish the GBP… a chance to short it is hard to resist most days and this trade had the potential to move 126 pips to our Target 2.  Alas the market had other ideas…but it did look good…right up until our profit stop was hit.

Today I found nothing that met my criteria for trading.  With it being a shortened week with the Easter holiday in many areas and the market waiting on Janet Yellen’s speech on Tuesday and NFP on Friday – it has been difficult to find setups for me.  The market tends to be tricky at month end and especially at end of quarter and year end.  I will step aside until next week and hope for a good NFP number tomorrow.

The first quarter of 2016 has ended and where are we now?  The USD was very strong last year and expectations grew by year end that interest rates would rise further in 2016… and they likely still will rise…but not as soon as many traders had anticipated considering how well the U.S. economy is doing.  A continuing dovish sounding Janet Yellen has helped the USD lose some of last year’s luster…for now.

Commodities including oil appear to have bounced off their lows and this is very positive for commodity sensitive currencies and especially oil sensitive currencies.  Europe remains unstable financially and Mario Draghi is throwing in everything he can to stabilize it and to my surprise the Euro has been holding up very well.  Will Britain choose to leave the EEC?  The UK is not doing as well economically this year and the “Brexit” uncertainty is very negative for the GBP.  China remains very interesting as they attempt to stimulate targeted growth.  Japan has a lot to overcome economically but the JPY remains strong as a reserve currency.

Currency trading is always interesting and ever changing… a fascinating occupation!

We will see what Q2 brings us in the way of trading opportunities.

Good luck with your trading!

Back next week.

With commodities moving up this year, the CAD and AUD have been active of late.

After Governor Stevens mentioned the Aussie dollar had gotten a bit ahead of itself yesterday, we would have thought it would have moved down then.  Instead we got a series of lower highs today and a short is taken for modest gains as we allowed a little wiggle room just above Target 1 and price moved up hitting our profit stop.

Good luck with your trading!

Hoping to find a trade before Good Friday…

As oil maintained its strength the USDCAD moved down.  The price of Brent and WTI were very close today which is unusual as Brent typically is about $2 more a barrel.

During the U.S. part of the session a setup enables us to go short.   Price moved down to test its Asian lows before descending further.

It’s very unfortunate that terrorists have struck in Europe again and this time in Belgium.  The GBP reacted very negatively but I could not find a safe entry.

Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of Belgium and the families of those killed and injured in the attacks.

Back tomorrow.