The EUR will continue to be reactive to any headlines regarding Greece and its staggering inability to repay loan payments and raise additional cash. How Greece’s financial woes will eventually be resolved is anyone’s guess.  In the meantime, I like looking for setups to short the EUR and if we get some relief rallies along the way, the same applies.  Be very cognizant of previous S&R levels as these will be levels where institutional money will enter, exit, take profits and add to existing positions.

Today the European traders moved the EUR up in the first hour of their trading – running stops above yesterday’s high.  After a reversal pattern completed in the UK session, an entry short is taken with a 22 pip stop loss for a potential 102 pips to our Target 2.  Price moved down swiftly and we placed our profit stop about halfway up the previous red candle… allowing for price to drop below the Asian session low and come back and retest it. Unfortunately price did not close below the Asian low before hitting our profit stop and we were closed out.

Always be very careful of pending economic news releases and remember it’s a lot easier to trade with the trend.  Keep your stops tight and lock in profits as your trades progress.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

There are increasingly more trades setting up daily once again, as the market suggests USD strength is back.  Yellen’s comments last week were considered hawkish and we have seen the market react accordingly as positions are built.

One of my favourite pairs to trade is the GBP and as it created a series of lower highs… a short is taken with a 21 pip stop loss for a potential 89 pips to our Target 2.

As price made its way down, we tighten our profit stop and when price bounced up from our Target 1, we are closed.

There were a number of nice trades in today’s session and we will continue to look for setups in the direction of USD strength.  The EUR will be very vulnerable to headlines regarding Greece defaulting and the implications for the EURO.  In the meantime, the yearly low looks like it could be tested in June if Greece does not get bailed out.

The JPY is active again and there is lots of blue sky above 1.2415.  There were lots of macro and longer term discretionary names entering this week.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

 

The never-ending debate about how soon the U.S. will raise interest rates continues.  Each economic news release is watched closely for a clue.

The month of June is quickly approaching and it’s an important one for Greece and the ECB.  Greece has  interest payments, loan repayments and refinancing via t-bills throughout the month.  It will be interesting as Greece’s Euro-area-backed bailout extension expires June 30th.

The EUR is approaching 1.1000 and if subsequently 1.0950 gives way…there is plenty of room to fall.  Many institutions are targeting par and below by year end.  Year end is a long way away and a lot can happen in the meantime!  A week ago the EUR was going up and the USD bulls were being squeezed.  Now it seems like the market can’t get enough US dollars.

The EUR remains below a very important level on the Daily chart.  An entry short was found as the EUR began to roll over for the session…allowing for a 17 pip stop loss.  As price moves down, the lower wicks on the candles get longer as buyers are entering.  In advance of the US open and pending US economic news, we close half of our position to lock in 30 pips.  We then move our profit stop back up to plus 1 pip for the balance.  If the market goes against us, we will have locked in the equivalent of 15 pips – not a bad day.  With no risk left in the trade, we await the outcome of the US CPI releases.  The market moves down precipitously.  We allow a few pips of wiggle room at Targets 1 and 2 knowing vertical moves are not sustainable.  Very rarely do we see a large move after Target 2 is hit.  We tighten the profit stop down and the market takes us out for bonus pips.

 

Trading is not easy but it tends to be fascinating and a lifelong learning exercise.

Interesting articles yesterday regarding the big banks and their market manipulations.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Sentiment is USD bullish once again this week…so far.

With the ECB bond buying picking up ahead of summer and positive US Building Permits and Housing Starts number came renewed USD strength.

A NZD short was found as the pair began to roll over early in the US session.  Our Targets 1 and 2 were .7282 and .7266 respectively.  The pair moved down but fell short of your targets as the market took a breather ahead of the FOMC.  We are closed protecting our profits just ahead of the European close.

 

One trader I spoke with took the identical trade on the NZDCAD pair.

Good luck with your trading!  Keep an eye on the USD and trade accordingly.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

As the US economic news releases continue to be soft, the USD continues to be sold off.  Trying to be too analytical about this gets in the way of nice trade setups and entries.  As an intraday trader it doesn’t make much difference anyway as long as the technicals produce nice setups with good R:R ratios.  Money management and being able to read price are keys to trading success – not analyst expectations.

As the UK session got underway, the USD strengthened.   After the EUR put in a double bottom early in the US session and began to move up, an entry long is taken.  Our first test will be how price reacts at the Asian session low or to the Prelim UofM Consumer Sentiment release.  We protect ourselves in advance, so the worst case scenario is we have a small profit.  Price goes vertical after the release for two candles and we blast through the Asian session high and Target 1 in a single candle.  Vertical moves are not sustainable so we protect Target 1 and our position is closed.

 

How the EUR reacts around the 1.1460 and 1.1500 figure will be very interesting to see.

The JPY also produced a nice short setup to trade toward the 1.1900 figure (not shown).  This pair is very range bound and appears to offer shorts toward 1.1900 and longs toward 1.2000 with caution around the 50 pip increments.

We will see next week what the sentiment is once again toward the USD.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your trading!

Back Tuesday if find a trade.

German 10 Year Bund yields continue to drive the EURUSD higher.  Apparently not all the USD long position traders have been flushed out. US economic data is a little softer than desired making for a slower economic recovery…but overall it is not bad…just a little slower than the markets like.

With some of Europe on holiday today and no economic news until the US session, we awaited for the move to follow.  As the NZD bounced off an important level today for the institutional position traders, we find a short entry.  With little time left in the trading session, we kept our profit stops tight and watch a familiar pattern complete.  We are taken out by the market just before the UK session ends for a modest gain.

Good luck with your trading!

Be very careful trading in this current market and keep your stops tight.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.