USD strength was evident across the majors today after the US Unemployment Claims number.  Yesterday’s FOMC statement also added to USD strength.

The EUR broke its 2 hour holding pattern after the Unemployment release and closed bearishly.  An entry short is taken with a 27 pips stop loss for a potential 109 pips to our Target 2.  With the confluence of the larger charts pointing the way and trading with the trend – we enter short with just over 3 hours left in the trading session.  Price moved down retesting the earlier session lows before continuing on toward our targets.

This is a slightly larger stop loss than my usual 15-25 pip ones.  The idea is to remove the risk as soon as is prudent to do so and then to lock in profits as price progresses toward the targets…while understanding the levels where price is likely to slow down and retest as well as being able to interpret what the candles are telling us.

At the UK session close, we exit our trade very close to our Target 1.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

 

The RBA left rates unchanged at 2.25%.  Interestingly with lower commodity prices and softening data from China, some would have thought a rate cut might be announced.  More interestingly was the big move up just before the RBA announcement…who knew?

This used to be one of my favourite setups to trade, but it hasn’t been as productive the past year.  The idea is to watch the AUD jump and do its daily range after a major economic news release during the Asian session  Look for signs of it weakening/reversing… such as the 3 lower highs that we saw today and ride it back down to the Asian low… or as close as it gets to it…but never be greedy.

Today as the long lower wicks form, we see price slow down and the momentum fades as buyers enter.

 

Tomorrow is FOMC day so hang on to your hats.

Good luck with your trading.

Back when we find a trade.

The USDCAD moved downward after the U.S. and Canadian economic news releases today.  With the USD weakening and the Canadian Trade Balance beating expectations, a short is taken with a 15 pip stop loss.  Price moved down and initially bounced at the Asian low before dropping right through it – where it then retested yesterday’s low.

As this is a counter-trend trade within a counter-trend week, we tighten our stop loss to get the risk out of the trade quickly and then tighten our profit stop as price moves in our direction.  The long lower wick (shown on the chart) is a warning that buyers were entering and we tightened our profit stop again… only to be taken out on the subsequent move up.

The always important Non-Farm Employment number will be released tomorrow with many traders away for the holiday weekend.  We will soon know what sort of impact it will have on the markets.

If the CAD continues downward, be cautious around the 1.2450 and 1.2380 levels as buyers are likely to emerge.

Good luck with your trading!  Enjoy the Easter holiday weekend.

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

 

An interesting week so far as the market awaits the NFP number this Good Friday.  With many markets closed, it’s a little surprising that the U.S. has not waited until next Friday for the release.

There were some counter-trend moves yesterday and trade setups have not been clear for us.  As the USD began to weaken in the UK session, our best trade setup came from the USDCAD – even before WTI began to move upward.  The majors appeared to be moving in sync  and a bearish candle closed on the CAD 15 minute chart – taking out the previous hour’s move up.  A  short is taken with a 15 pips stop loss for a potential 125 pips to our Target 2.

As price moved down below the Asian high, we tighten our SL  to plus one pip – as this is a counter-trend move.  WTI moved up after a triple bottom and the trade looked increasingly promising.  Momentum however faded as price settled in at the Asian lows and after trying to go lower, we protected our profits closing the trade on the bounce upward.

It’s a shortened week for us and we will be back tomorrow to wrap it up if we find a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

The GBP has been ranging lately roughly between 1.47 and 1.50.  As it reached the top of its range today, sellers entered and down it came.  The pair looked beautiful to the downside on the Daily, 4 hr and hourly charts.  We fine tune our entries on the 15 minute chart and patiently awaited the US Unemployment claims release.

The number was USD positive and the majors moved in tandem.  We entered short and were quickly rewarded.  Price briefly paused at Target 1 then   cut right through Target 2 – the next candle.  We exit on the bounce protecting Target 2.

The Final GDP q/q number for the US will be closely watched by traders tomorrow.  If this number is a good one, the GBP may drop to test the recent range lows of 1.4720 or the FOMC low near 1.4625.  If the GDP number misses than we would expect a reversal to the upside.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

 

Fairly easy session to find trades after the US news today.  The JPY had a similar setup to yesterday for a few pips with the bounce above the low from the FOMC day.

The AUD and NZD have been reaching lofty highs of late with the .7900 level  looking like a good area to find sell setups and the .7700 level being the same for the Kiwi.  A bit of disappointing news domestically or continued USD bullishness being the potential catalyst.

A familiar reversal setup after the US news today right in our sell zone.  With an 18 pips stop loss, we are trying to get to the FOMC day high and break below.  This is a key technical level and price will tell us if it will hold.  If not, price may cascade lower potentially to test the low of the FOMC day near term but not today.

As price came down and it paused at the  .7846 level.  It bounced above and we allowed it to retest but as it found buyers after 3 candles we exited. Price did subsequently break lower and if it closes today below the .7846 level – this will be of technical significance.

Unemployment claims tomorrow and GDP on Friday will be important releases.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.