A very orderly move in the GBPUSD today as it made a “3 Drives” pattern downward. The first drive was from its Asian session high to its Asian session low – where it rested and went sideways. The second drive was down and through yesterday’s low – where it rested again before its third drive downward to the European close – before going sideways into the U.K. close.

A short was taken after the U.S. session initial jobless claims release…risking 12 pips for a potential 78 pips to our daily target at 1.3052. Price moved lower, closing below yesterday’s low. We removed the risk from the trade by moving our profit stop to plus 3 pips and allowed for a retest of yesterday’s low. Price went sideways before beginning to move lower. We continued to lock in profit and closed the trade at the U.K. close.

I will be away tomorrow, but it should prove to be an interesting day for traders. The NFP release may allay fears of the U.S. slowdown or exacerbate them. The market is very twitchy at the moment. Traders continue to focus on the positives regarding the progress made in the U.S. – China trade talks, and the negatives of Brexit and its implications for Britain and Europe. Once the U.S. – China trade talks are resolved, we may find Europe up next, in President Trump’s cross hairs…specifically Germany’s auto sector.

Good luck tomorrow!

Early in the U.S. session the GBPUSD attempted to move above its Asian session high and failed. After it began moving down, a short was taken risking 15 pips for a potential 117 pips to our daily target at 1.3052. Price continued downward then bounced at its Asian session low where it began to find buyers.

This trade although very risky due to the GBPUSD’s potential for extreme volatility, became less so by moving the stop loss down with almost every candle…thereby locking in profit.

Although the USD strength took a breather today, gold was also off, as was oil. Equities and bond yields moved marginally higher

The trading signals have been a little mixed this week.

Good luck with your trading!

As the U.S. session got underway the EURUSD moved higher but failed to close above its Asian session high and began to move lower after leaving a long upper wick. A short was taken risking 8 pips for a potential 37 pips to our daily target at 1.1168.

Would price be able to take out its March 7th 2019 low?

Price moved lower and we closed the trade at the U.K. close without price moving beneath 1.1175. If the USD can continue upward tomorrow this level will most likely be tested. It appears that the USD is running into some overhead resistance, so we may see it rest or pull back temporarily.

Oil continues to rise and we will see what effect the oil inventories will have on price tomorrow and the oil sensitive currencies.

The Brexit drama continues and GBPUSD bulls sit on the sidelines waiting for positive news. Most traders are avoiding the pair until the picture becomes clearer… and it remains as clear as mud at the moment.

Good luck with your trading!

The USD strength is continuing as we begin the second quarter.

What has changed with Brexit other than a brief extension? The short answer is…nothing. PM May has not been able to get an acceptable deal through her own parliament, let alone the E.U. The GBPUSD moved higher today, but I prefer to only short the pair until an agreement is reached. Most traders are avoiding the pair.

The EURUSD made two lower highs early in the U.S. session and a short was taken risking 12 pips for a potential 33 pips to our daily target just above the figure at 1.1202. Price moved lower and our trade was closed at 1.1209 at the end of the session.

There was a “risk on sentiment” today as evidenced by the U.S. 10 year yield and equities.

The U.K. and Europe have finally moved their clocks ahead, and this coming weekend Australia and New Zealand will be moving their clocks back.

Good luck with your trading!

ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed yesterday that improvement in growth and inflation is still expected in the second half of 2019 and if that doesn’t happen, then the officials are ready to take action.

In advance of the U.K. open the EURUSD sold off, it then pulled back making a lower high and went sideways. As it broke to the downside once again, a short was taken risking 13 pips for a potential 60 pips to our daily target at 1.1188. Price began to move down quickly and closed beneath its Asian session low in advance of the U.S. open. We moved our profit stop down allowing for a retest of this level. Price continued lower as the U.S. session got underway and the first reversal candle closed the trade.

I continue to be USD bullish and Euro bearish. If the economic numbers continue to look more like they are pointing toward recession in the E.U. and not showing meaningful inflation, the EURUSD may test 1.1000 going forward.

Although the U.S. is slowing compared to last year, it is still growing and the Fed has flexibility with interest rates.

The U.K. continues to be unable to put forward an acceptable Brexit agenda. The Japanese yen continues to benefit only on risk off days, but gold has tumbled beneath $1300 once again with the rekindled USD strength this week.

Good luck with your trading!

One week, we have USD strength, followed by USD weakness, followed by USD strength. It appears the bears and the bulls are both correct. Volatility and reversals are something traders needs to get accustomed to.

Fundamental analysis is very important but reading price and understanding simple technical analysis is how we make money and find trade setups. Money management and discipline are how traders survive.

Today the EURUSD moved up from its Asian session lows, but was unable to sustain above its Asian session highs. A short was taken risking 10 pips for a potential 70 pips to our daily target at 1.1245. Price moved lower and continued lower as the U.S. session got underway. We kept our profit stop tight and ended up being closed for a modest gain.

The market continues to be focused on the U.S. – China trade talks and Brexit outcomes. New potential scenarios are popping up daily with Britain, and this has kept the GBPUSD well above 1.3000 for the time being as a hard Brexit remains at bay. The yield inversion reaction appears to be a little premature in my opinion.

Note: My postings may continue to be less frequent over the next couple of weeks due to someone very close to me being very ill.

Good luck with your trading!